Protests in Iran: My thoughts
On the 28 of December 2017, multiple protests across Iran broke out, as a result of long lasting economic hardship and governmental corruption. Now, about week and a half later, the protests are still going on, with tens of thousands of people in multiple cities across the country express their frustration with the theocratic government. During that time, a bit over 20 people have been killed and estimated 1000+ people having been arrested. Apart from this Iranians living outside of Iran have been organizing protests in other countries, including a protest in front of the Iranian embassy in Helsinki. This is the most unrest the Iranian government has faced in years, but, where is it coming from? What are the roots of this? In this post, I'll give you some of my thoughts on the matter.
First of all, even though economic hardship and corruption have named as the spark for these protests,they have quickly turned into protests towards the government. Iran is officially an "Islamic republic", which means that while they have an elected parliament and a president, all the candidates are pre-approved by Islamic clerics. As a result, the Iranian system can be at best described as pseudo-democratic and the actual leader is not the president Hassan Rouhani, but the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The supreme leader controls the military, judicial system, appoints many members of civil government and can even dismiss the president in certain circumstances. There is something called the Assembly of Experts, an elected body designated to keep the supreme leader in check. However, all the candidates for the assembly have to be approved by the Guardian Council, members of which are appointed. Half of it's 12 members are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the other half by the head of the judicial system, who is appointed by the Supreme Leader. The council also approves all candidates for the parliament and president and also reviews any bill passed by the parliament, with a right to veto any legislation. After being elected, all members of the Assembly of Experts have to be approved by the Supreme Leader, meaning, in practice the Supreme Leader can make sure that nobody who's against him can get to the Assembly. Also, there have been cases of members being arrested and kicked out of the Assembly after the Supreme Leader has criticized them. In other words, the Supreme Leader has in practice, unlimited power to run the country.
On the other hand, while the government is run by Islamic clerics, the population of Iran is on average very young. Basically, there is a massive divide within the country: on the other hand, there is the pseudo-democratic government, in practice run by clerics, which makes real reform nearly impossible. Meanwhile, large percentage, or maybe even most of the people don't agree with this system. They want real democracy and don't care for the religious domination of society. When you combine this divide with economic hardship, it's no surprise that there is unrest. It was really just a matter of time.
Now, the economic problems. For one, the country has seen some major inflation in recent years, leading to an increase in prices for everyday products. Also, as a part of the Iran Nuclear Deal, the US released Iranian funds, previously frozen as a part of the sanctions. Other signatories of the treaty also lifted some of their sanction toward Iran, an act which many Iranians hoped would help with the economic hardships, but this didn't happen. Also, in late 2017, a budget draft for the government leaked, shoving planned increases in the funding of the Revolutionary Guards and multiple religious organizations, while cutting subsidies for the poor. This combined with the fact that the Iranian government is involved in different conflicts by funding the Syrian government, Hezbollah and the Houthis just to name a few. It's fair to say the people of Iran are fed up. And that shows.
The protests broke out on the 28 of December in the city of Mashhad and spread to over 70 towns and cities across the country. There have also been protests held by Iranians living outside of the country around the world, including one in Helsinki While the protests initially were about economic problems, they quickly turned against the government. Protesters have been calling for the Supreme Leader to step down. Protesters have also been chanting praises towards the monarchy that was in power before the 1979 Islamic revolution. There have also been reports of protesters burning pictures of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his predecessor Ruhollah Khomeini, as well as protesters storming government buildings and even setting fire to them. Despite everything that is happening, the protesters don't seem to be that united. Instead, this seems to be about general frustration with the government. As a result, while people clearly are fed up with how the country is run, it's debatable whether or not any meaningful change will come out of this, since the protesters can't agree on what exactly they want.
In response to the protests, the Iranian government deployed the Revolutionary Guards to quell the protests. The government also restricted access to internet, which has made it harder to get verified information out of the country and made it difficult for the protesters to coordinate their actions. There have also been pro-government demonstrations orchestrated by the government, with people being brought to the sites and ready made placards being distributed to the protesters. The government has also labeled the protests as western machinations against Iran. On the 7 of January, the Revolutionary Guards declared that the unrest was defeated, even though protests are still going on. In total 23 protesters and one police officer has died and over 2000 people have been arrested, with three people having died in custody.
International response has mostly been calls for the government to respect the rights of the protesters and calls for both sides to refrain from violence. On the 5 of January, after a request from Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting regarding the situation in Iran. However, the Council didn't see the situation as a threat to international security and thus, the meeting didn't really amount to anything. Some countries also saw the protests as an internal matter and thus didn't see the point to have a debate on the matter.
As I mentioned before, the Iranian people on average are very young. The fact is that the younger generations generally don't like the Islamic regime and as a result, I think that change is inevitable. Since t Iranian government has declared the protests to have been quelled it s that change has to wait for now. But ultimately I'm hopeful about actual reform happening in Iran. One day, the people will simply have enough and the Iranian people will see freedom.
First of all, even though economic hardship and corruption have named as the spark for these protests,they have quickly turned into protests towards the government. Iran is officially an "Islamic republic", which means that while they have an elected parliament and a president, all the candidates are pre-approved by Islamic clerics. As a result, the Iranian system can be at best described as pseudo-democratic and the actual leader is not the president Hassan Rouhani, but the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The supreme leader controls the military, judicial system, appoints many members of civil government and can even dismiss the president in certain circumstances. There is something called the Assembly of Experts, an elected body designated to keep the supreme leader in check. However, all the candidates for the assembly have to be approved by the Guardian Council, members of which are appointed. Half of it's 12 members are appointed by the Supreme Leader and the other half by the head of the judicial system, who is appointed by the Supreme Leader. The council also approves all candidates for the parliament and president and also reviews any bill passed by the parliament, with a right to veto any legislation. After being elected, all members of the Assembly of Experts have to be approved by the Supreme Leader, meaning, in practice the Supreme Leader can make sure that nobody who's against him can get to the Assembly. Also, there have been cases of members being arrested and kicked out of the Assembly after the Supreme Leader has criticized them. In other words, the Supreme Leader has in practice, unlimited power to run the country.
On the other hand, while the government is run by Islamic clerics, the population of Iran is on average very young. Basically, there is a massive divide within the country: on the other hand, there is the pseudo-democratic government, in practice run by clerics, which makes real reform nearly impossible. Meanwhile, large percentage, or maybe even most of the people don't agree with this system. They want real democracy and don't care for the religious domination of society. When you combine this divide with economic hardship, it's no surprise that there is unrest. It was really just a matter of time.
Now, the economic problems. For one, the country has seen some major inflation in recent years, leading to an increase in prices for everyday products. Also, as a part of the Iran Nuclear Deal, the US released Iranian funds, previously frozen as a part of the sanctions. Other signatories of the treaty also lifted some of their sanction toward Iran, an act which many Iranians hoped would help with the economic hardships, but this didn't happen. Also, in late 2017, a budget draft for the government leaked, shoving planned increases in the funding of the Revolutionary Guards and multiple religious organizations, while cutting subsidies for the poor. This combined with the fact that the Iranian government is involved in different conflicts by funding the Syrian government, Hezbollah and the Houthis just to name a few. It's fair to say the people of Iran are fed up. And that shows.
The protests broke out on the 28 of December in the city of Mashhad and spread to over 70 towns and cities across the country. There have also been protests held by Iranians living outside of the country around the world, including one in Helsinki While the protests initially were about economic problems, they quickly turned against the government. Protesters have been calling for the Supreme Leader to step down. Protesters have also been chanting praises towards the monarchy that was in power before the 1979 Islamic revolution. There have also been reports of protesters burning pictures of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his predecessor Ruhollah Khomeini, as well as protesters storming government buildings and even setting fire to them. Despite everything that is happening, the protesters don't seem to be that united. Instead, this seems to be about general frustration with the government. As a result, while people clearly are fed up with how the country is run, it's debatable whether or not any meaningful change will come out of this, since the protesters can't agree on what exactly they want.
In response to the protests, the Iranian government deployed the Revolutionary Guards to quell the protests. The government also restricted access to internet, which has made it harder to get verified information out of the country and made it difficult for the protesters to coordinate their actions. There have also been pro-government demonstrations orchestrated by the government, with people being brought to the sites and ready made placards being distributed to the protesters. The government has also labeled the protests as western machinations against Iran. On the 7 of January, the Revolutionary Guards declared that the unrest was defeated, even though protests are still going on. In total 23 protesters and one police officer has died and over 2000 people have been arrested, with three people having died in custody.
International response has mostly been calls for the government to respect the rights of the protesters and calls for both sides to refrain from violence. On the 5 of January, after a request from Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the UN, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting regarding the situation in Iran. However, the Council didn't see the situation as a threat to international security and thus, the meeting didn't really amount to anything. Some countries also saw the protests as an internal matter and thus didn't see the point to have a debate on the matter.
As I mentioned before, the Iranian people on average are very young. The fact is that the younger generations generally don't like the Islamic regime and as a result, I think that change is inevitable. Since t Iranian government has declared the protests to have been quelled it s that change has to wait for now. But ultimately I'm hopeful about actual reform happening in Iran. One day, the people will simply have enough and the Iranian people will see freedom.
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