Finnish election heating up?
I've mentioned in previous posts that Finland is holding it's presidential election on the 28th of January. I've also mentioned that there's a good chance that the incumbent president Sauli Niinistö will actually win in the first round of voting. The actual voting happens in just 5 days, so the question is, has anything changed?
Well, for one, the chance of Niinistö winning during the first round is looking less likely. A recent poll made by Accuscore, gives Niinistö 49.2% of the vote. He's still strongly in the lead as the second and third place holders Pekka Haavisto (Green League) and Paavo Väyrynen (independent) hold 13.6% and 13.2% respectively. Basically, the main contest here seems to be for the second place between the two. Now, even if a second round is held, it's pretty clear that Niinistö will still win. Haavisto and Väyrynen both have some facts about them which prevent them getting over 50% of the vote even if it came to that.
Haavisto actually was in the second round against Niinistö in the 2012 election when he got 37.4% of the vote. I know this might sound horrific for some, but at least part of the reason he lost fairly decisively is the fact that he's gay. Even though gay people are generally accepted (gay marriage became possible in March 2017), there are still a fair number of hardliners who refuse to let it go. There's also the fact that he's a civil serviceman like myself, meaning he's recognized as a conscientious objector under the law, so for some it would be weird to have him as the commander-in-chief. Not only that, but there still are some people who are very hostile towards any man that doesn't serve in the military.
Väyrynen on the other hand is veteran politician, as he was elected to parliament for the first time in 1970 and has been involved in politics ever since. He was the leader of the Center Party from 1980 to 1990 and has spent nearly a combined 6000 days as a minister during his political career, was the parties presidential candidate on three separate occasions, including in 2012 and is considered their honorary chairperson. The main problem people seem to have with him is that they're quite simply fed up with him. Even though he's a legend within the Center Party, outside of that, lot of people think he has run his course.
Now, as I said before, Väyrynen is running as an independent, but if he's actually spent his political career in the Center Party, why didn't they pick him as their candidate? Well, in recent years he has become a bit of a thorn in the party's flesh. The reason is that in 2016, Väyrynen founded his own political party. The Citizen's Party was registered as a party in December of that year and he was the party's first leader. This created problems as despite being the leader of a political party, he refused resign from the Center Party. This was problematic, since the Center Party's rules prevent the party's leadership from kicking out individual members as they officially are members of the local chapters. This means that in order to be kicked out it has to be done by the local chapter. However, Väyrynen happened to be the leader and founder of his local chapter and as a result, they were hesitant to kick him out. And since Väyrynen refused to leave the party, the whole local chapter he founded had to be kicked out of the party just to get rid of one man. Not only that, but even the Citizen's Party's current leader Sami Kilpeläinen and vice-chair Piia Kattelus are both former members of the Center Party, meaning this new party might cause some major problems for the Center.
This brings us to another interesting contest between two candidates: that between Väyrynen and the Center Party's candidate Matti Vanhanen, who is currently polling at 5%. If Väyrynen beats Vanhanen, which looking at the current numbers looks pretty certain, it would be a huge defeat for the Center Party. There have been fears within the party that Väyrynen and the Citizen's Party might cause internal conflicts within the party. The Center Party is scheduled to hold it's convention next summer, so think about what a loss in this election to Väyrynen would mean for the party leadership. This would be an embarrassment for the party, to lose to one of their most well known politicians, despite the party going against him.
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Well, for one, the chance of Niinistö winning during the first round is looking less likely. A recent poll made by Accuscore, gives Niinistö 49.2% of the vote. He's still strongly in the lead as the second and third place holders Pekka Haavisto (Green League) and Paavo Väyrynen (independent) hold 13.6% and 13.2% respectively. Basically, the main contest here seems to be for the second place between the two. Now, even if a second round is held, it's pretty clear that Niinistö will still win. Haavisto and Väyrynen both have some facts about them which prevent them getting over 50% of the vote even if it came to that.
Haavisto actually was in the second round against Niinistö in the 2012 election when he got 37.4% of the vote. I know this might sound horrific for some, but at least part of the reason he lost fairly decisively is the fact that he's gay. Even though gay people are generally accepted (gay marriage became possible in March 2017), there are still a fair number of hardliners who refuse to let it go. There's also the fact that he's a civil serviceman like myself, meaning he's recognized as a conscientious objector under the law, so for some it would be weird to have him as the commander-in-chief. Not only that, but there still are some people who are very hostile towards any man that doesn't serve in the military.
Väyrynen on the other hand is veteran politician, as he was elected to parliament for the first time in 1970 and has been involved in politics ever since. He was the leader of the Center Party from 1980 to 1990 and has spent nearly a combined 6000 days as a minister during his political career, was the parties presidential candidate on three separate occasions, including in 2012 and is considered their honorary chairperson. The main problem people seem to have with him is that they're quite simply fed up with him. Even though he's a legend within the Center Party, outside of that, lot of people think he has run his course.
Now, as I said before, Väyrynen is running as an independent, but if he's actually spent his political career in the Center Party, why didn't they pick him as their candidate? Well, in recent years he has become a bit of a thorn in the party's flesh. The reason is that in 2016, Väyrynen founded his own political party. The Citizen's Party was registered as a party in December of that year and he was the party's first leader. This created problems as despite being the leader of a political party, he refused resign from the Center Party. This was problematic, since the Center Party's rules prevent the party's leadership from kicking out individual members as they officially are members of the local chapters. This means that in order to be kicked out it has to be done by the local chapter. However, Väyrynen happened to be the leader and founder of his local chapter and as a result, they were hesitant to kick him out. And since Väyrynen refused to leave the party, the whole local chapter he founded had to be kicked out of the party just to get rid of one man. Not only that, but even the Citizen's Party's current leader Sami Kilpeläinen and vice-chair Piia Kattelus are both former members of the Center Party, meaning this new party might cause some major problems for the Center.
This brings us to another interesting contest between two candidates: that between Väyrynen and the Center Party's candidate Matti Vanhanen, who is currently polling at 5%. If Väyrynen beats Vanhanen, which looking at the current numbers looks pretty certain, it would be a huge defeat for the Center Party. There have been fears within the party that Väyrynen and the Citizen's Party might cause internal conflicts within the party. The Center Party is scheduled to hold it's convention next summer, so think about what a loss in this election to Väyrynen would mean for the party leadership. This would be an embarrassment for the party, to lose to one of their most well known politicians, despite the party going against him.
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