Election results: What do they tell us?
The Finnish presidential election was held just two days ago. It resulted to the incumbent Sauli Niinistö being re-elected with 62.7% of the vote, meaning this is the first time with the current voting system that a president was elected during the first round of voting. But, what do the results tell us about the future?
The total result is:
Now for one, you might notice that the results are very different than in the poll made by Accuscore that I mentioned in my previous post on the election. Well, first of all, it's actually not a poll, but a prediction and admittedly, I should have taken a closer look on that before my post. Accuscore does not do their own opinion polls, instead, they make make predictions on the results based on available data, which includes things like existing polls and past election results. Based on the data they have, they simulate the election result and in the past, they've had a good track record on predicting Finnish elections. So, what went wrong this time? According to the company the reason is the voting system used for presidential elections. You see, Finnish elections use a form of proportional voting, with the exception of the presidential election which uses direct voting. The company explained that their methods simply don't work on this type of voting, which resulted in a serious failure to predict the result. But whatever the reason, they got it wrong.
Another thing you'll notice is that Sauli Niinistö ran as an independent. Why is this? Well you see, in order to run as an independent in Finland, you have to form something called "valitsijayhdistys", which roughly translates to something like "electoral organization". Apart from this, you need a number of pledged supporters depending on which election you're running in. In case of the presidential election the number is 20 000. When he was first elected in 2012, Niinistö ran as the candidate for the National Coalition, but instead of running for them again he decided to run as an independent in order to "test his support" with the people, ultimately getting 156 000 supporters for his campaign. The National Coalition decided to officially endorse Niinistö in the election instead of nominating their own candidate.
Now let's take a look at the results. First one is obvious: Niinistö's overwhelming victory. It's pretty clear that he was able to steal support from all parties. People simply saw Niinistö as a better candidate than the candidates of their own party. The only exception to this seems to be Pekka Haavisto. The Green League is currently polling at fourth place with 14.5%, while Haavisto received 12.4% of the vote in the election. He seems to be the only candidate to have been able to attract majority support from his base. I think this pretty clearly shows that the parties message seems to resonate with the people and suggest major success in the parliamentary election in the spring of 2019.
The Social Democrats on the other hand are currently number two in polls with 19.2% but their candidate Tuula Haatainen only got 3.3% of the vote. I think this mostly shows the inner struggles within the party. The fact is that they had major problems with finding a candidate, with many high ranking members declining the nomination. These people included at least one former prime minister and the current party leader Antti Rinne. The Left Alliance on the other hand is currently polling at 8.6%, while Merja Kyllönen only had 3.0% of the vote. I think the combination of these two shows bit of a problem on the political left in Finland. Apart from poor success in the election, the most recent polls also show that both parties have seen a slight drop in their support. Even though during the current election cycle both parties have been able to increase their support, it's fairly underwhelming considering the actions of our current government. The fact is that the actions of prime minister Juha Sipilä's government should have been a blessing for the political left, but instead of the two most clearly left wing parties in the parliament seeing a massive spike in their numbers, the main party benefiting from this has been the Green League, which, despite being generally left leaning is a bit more in the center. I think this shows that the left in Finland has to do some changes if they want proper success in next years election.
Another interesting fact is the contest between the Center Party's Matti Vanhanen and the independent Paavo Väyrynen. As I mentioned in my previous post, Väyrynen is a veteran politician whose career in politics has lasted for over 40 years, spending most of that time as the Center Party's MP.. He's also the party's former leader and their honorary chairperson, but ultimately fell out with the party almost two years ago, after he formed his own party because of his disappointment with the Center. As you can see, he beat Vanhanen by 2.1%, which in this election is fairly wide margin. In my previous post I mentioned that the Center Party is holding it's party convention next summer and that this might have a major effect on what happens. The party will be choosing their new leader and prime minister Juha Sipilä announced soon after the election that he will be running for another term. The thing is, the result of this election might mean that his days are numbered. Since the previous parliamentary elections which led to Sipilä getting into office, the party's support has dropped nearly 6%, so I think it's fair to say that some of the party's members might be a bit fed up with him. There's also the fact that Vanhanen being chosen as the party's candidate for the presidential election may have involved some internal machinations within the party. Also, since the party's support has dropped fairly dramatically, they might want to change their leadership in order to change direction. So, I'd say there's a good chance that Finland will be getting a new prime minister in the summer.
Another fairly interesting aspect of the election was the contest between the Finns Party's Laura Huhtasaari and Väyrynen. You see, the Finns Party is known for their Euro skeptic stance. The fact is that Väyrynen has also been critical of the EU and the Euro as a currency. He's not as much of a hardliner on the issue compared to Huhtasaari, but there's a good chance that his position on the matter may have swayed some of her supporters to him. I've mentioned this briefly, but after the Finns Party's convention last summer, which saw some of the party's hardliners being elected into the party's leadership, a large group of people supporting the old leadership left the party to later form a new political party called the Blue Reform. The fact is, there are a lot of people who may have supported the Finns Party in the past, but are now taken back by the hard-line stance of the new leadership, but who also detest the Blue Reform for splitting off from the party. I think it's fair to say that Väyrynen and his Citizen's Party might draw some of these people to them. I think there's a good chance to expect something of a three way split in the euro skeptic circles in the next election.
Ultimately this is just what I think about this topic, based on some of the reaction in the media. Ultimately, we have to wait and see what happens.
Follow me on Twitter.
The total result is:
- Sauli Niinistö (Independent) 62.7%
- Pekka Haavisto (Green League) 12.4%
- Laura Huhtasaari (Finns Party) 6.9%
- Paavo Väyrynen (Independent) 6.2%
- Matti Vanhanen (Center Party) 4.1%
- Tuula Haatainen (Social Democrats) 3.3%
- Merja Kyllönen (Left Alliance) 3.0%
- Nils Torvalds (Swedish National Party) 1.5%
Now for one, you might notice that the results are very different than in the poll made by Accuscore that I mentioned in my previous post on the election. Well, first of all, it's actually not a poll, but a prediction and admittedly, I should have taken a closer look on that before my post. Accuscore does not do their own opinion polls, instead, they make make predictions on the results based on available data, which includes things like existing polls and past election results. Based on the data they have, they simulate the election result and in the past, they've had a good track record on predicting Finnish elections. So, what went wrong this time? According to the company the reason is the voting system used for presidential elections. You see, Finnish elections use a form of proportional voting, with the exception of the presidential election which uses direct voting. The company explained that their methods simply don't work on this type of voting, which resulted in a serious failure to predict the result. But whatever the reason, they got it wrong.
Another thing you'll notice is that Sauli Niinistö ran as an independent. Why is this? Well you see, in order to run as an independent in Finland, you have to form something called "valitsijayhdistys", which roughly translates to something like "electoral organization". Apart from this, you need a number of pledged supporters depending on which election you're running in. In case of the presidential election the number is 20 000. When he was first elected in 2012, Niinistö ran as the candidate for the National Coalition, but instead of running for them again he decided to run as an independent in order to "test his support" with the people, ultimately getting 156 000 supporters for his campaign. The National Coalition decided to officially endorse Niinistö in the election instead of nominating their own candidate.
Now let's take a look at the results. First one is obvious: Niinistö's overwhelming victory. It's pretty clear that he was able to steal support from all parties. People simply saw Niinistö as a better candidate than the candidates of their own party. The only exception to this seems to be Pekka Haavisto. The Green League is currently polling at fourth place with 14.5%, while Haavisto received 12.4% of the vote in the election. He seems to be the only candidate to have been able to attract majority support from his base. I think this pretty clearly shows that the parties message seems to resonate with the people and suggest major success in the parliamentary election in the spring of 2019.
The Social Democrats on the other hand are currently number two in polls with 19.2% but their candidate Tuula Haatainen only got 3.3% of the vote. I think this mostly shows the inner struggles within the party. The fact is that they had major problems with finding a candidate, with many high ranking members declining the nomination. These people included at least one former prime minister and the current party leader Antti Rinne. The Left Alliance on the other hand is currently polling at 8.6%, while Merja Kyllönen only had 3.0% of the vote. I think the combination of these two shows bit of a problem on the political left in Finland. Apart from poor success in the election, the most recent polls also show that both parties have seen a slight drop in their support. Even though during the current election cycle both parties have been able to increase their support, it's fairly underwhelming considering the actions of our current government. The fact is that the actions of prime minister Juha Sipilä's government should have been a blessing for the political left, but instead of the two most clearly left wing parties in the parliament seeing a massive spike in their numbers, the main party benefiting from this has been the Green League, which, despite being generally left leaning is a bit more in the center. I think this shows that the left in Finland has to do some changes if they want proper success in next years election.
Another interesting fact is the contest between the Center Party's Matti Vanhanen and the independent Paavo Väyrynen. As I mentioned in my previous post, Väyrynen is a veteran politician whose career in politics has lasted for over 40 years, spending most of that time as the Center Party's MP.. He's also the party's former leader and their honorary chairperson, but ultimately fell out with the party almost two years ago, after he formed his own party because of his disappointment with the Center. As you can see, he beat Vanhanen by 2.1%, which in this election is fairly wide margin. In my previous post I mentioned that the Center Party is holding it's party convention next summer and that this might have a major effect on what happens. The party will be choosing their new leader and prime minister Juha Sipilä announced soon after the election that he will be running for another term. The thing is, the result of this election might mean that his days are numbered. Since the previous parliamentary elections which led to Sipilä getting into office, the party's support has dropped nearly 6%, so I think it's fair to say that some of the party's members might be a bit fed up with him. There's also the fact that Vanhanen being chosen as the party's candidate for the presidential election may have involved some internal machinations within the party. Also, since the party's support has dropped fairly dramatically, they might want to change their leadership in order to change direction. So, I'd say there's a good chance that Finland will be getting a new prime minister in the summer.
Another fairly interesting aspect of the election was the contest between the Finns Party's Laura Huhtasaari and Väyrynen. You see, the Finns Party is known for their Euro skeptic stance. The fact is that Väyrynen has also been critical of the EU and the Euro as a currency. He's not as much of a hardliner on the issue compared to Huhtasaari, but there's a good chance that his position on the matter may have swayed some of her supporters to him. I've mentioned this briefly, but after the Finns Party's convention last summer, which saw some of the party's hardliners being elected into the party's leadership, a large group of people supporting the old leadership left the party to later form a new political party called the Blue Reform. The fact is, there are a lot of people who may have supported the Finns Party in the past, but are now taken back by the hard-line stance of the new leadership, but who also detest the Blue Reform for splitting off from the party. I think it's fair to say that Väyrynen and his Citizen's Party might draw some of these people to them. I think there's a good chance to expect something of a three way split in the euro skeptic circles in the next election.
Ultimately this is just what I think about this topic, based on some of the reaction in the media. Ultimately, we have to wait and see what happens.
Follow me on Twitter.
Kommentit
Lähetä kommentti