Crisis in Catalonia: my thoughts
Okay, let's address the elephant in the room: it's nearly two weeks since my previous post. The reason is that I recently went back to school. I've been unemployed for the last six months so I decided to do something to increase my chances of finding work. Also, while my plan was to talk about Trump, I recently read some news regarding Catalonia.
To those who are not familiar with the situation, here's some background to the situation. Catalonia is, at least officially, an autonomous part of Spain, To be clear, Spain is divided into multiple autonomous regions with varying decrees of self determination. This is because the country is culturally very diverse. The idea behind the division of power is to keep the country in tact while still making sure that the rights of the different linguistic and cultural minorities are respected. You can probably already guess that not everybody is too happy with the current situation. As a result, many of the autonomous communities have separatist movements, some more popular than others. Catalonia probably has the most successful one, as the pro-independence parties have held a majority in the regional parliament since 2015. There are two reasons for this: for one, the region has historically been separate from rest of Spain, holding a high level of autonomy in various times in history. On the other hand, the region is economically the strongest region of Spain, and as a result, some Catalans are unhappy that they pay a disproportionate amount of taxes, while not getting enough back. This combined with the 2008 Spanish financial crisis has led to a rapid increase in the support for independence, which leads us to the current events in the region.
In regional elections 2015, the pro-independence coalition Junts pel Sí became the largest group in the Catalan parliament and formed a minority government with conditional support from CUP-CC, a pro-independence party not part of the coalition, thus giving the majority of seats to the pro-independence parties. Before the election, Junts pel Sí had called for a referendum on the issue of independence, based on the results of an opinion poll held in 2014. The poll showed that over 90% supported independence, however, voter turnout was estimated to be between 37-42%, suggesting the poll was boycotted by people opposing independence. The referendum was scheduled to be held before the 17 of September 2017, but because of legislative and practical problems it was delayed until the 1 of October.
The Spanish central government responded to the planned referendum by declaring it as unconstitutional, taking the matter to the Constitutional Court which backed the governments position. Apart from this, because of an separate court order, the Spanish Civil Guard started Operation Anubis on the 20 of September, aimed at dismantling the framework for the referendum. The operation included raids towards the headquarters of the Catalan government, arrests of high ranking official organizing the referendum and raids towards printing companies in order to find ballot papers and boxes. This resulted in massive protests called by pro-independence groups, leaving Civil Guards agents trapped inside of buildings.
On the date of the referendum itself, the national police continued their efforts to prevent the vote. An estimated 16 000 police and military personnel were brought to Catalonia in an effort to close down polling stations. According to figures from the Catalan government, 14.5% were prevented from voting because of actions by the police. The operations sparked massive protests across the region and this the police using force towards the protesters. Pictures and videos of officers beating up peaceful protesters went viral, leading to international backlash against the actions of the police. Because of the actions of the police, combined with other irregularities with the referendum, including problems with the program used to monitor the results and people reportedly voting multiple times, international observers concluded the results as invalid.
According to the official results, voter turnout was 43% and the support for independence 92%. The Catalan government took this result as a clear indication of support for independence. The government drafted an declaration of independence and signed it on the 10 of October, however, the Catalan president Carles Puigdemont immediately requested the declaration to be suspended, in order to have dialogue with the Spanish government. The Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy held a short news conference the following day, demanding an answer on whether or not Puigdemont had declared Catalonia's independence and threatened to invoke Section 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which would allow the central government to take away Catalonia's autonomy, if the answer was affirmative. The Spanish government also demanded new elections to be held in Catalonia as a solution to the situation.
Since negotiations were not going anywhere, it was expected that Puigdemont would announce new elections in an effort to avoid Catalonia losing it's autonomy. Instead, on 27 of October, the Catalan parliament voted in favor of declaring independence. Before the vote, 53 members of the opposition refused to be present for the vote. After the declaration, the EU announced that they would not recognize the declarations, soon followed by other countries stating that they considered Catalonia a part of Spain. Immediately after the declaration was signed, the Spanish government invoked Section 155 of the constitution and dissolved the Catalan parliament, meaning Catalonia was taken under direct control of the central government. After this, Puigdemont and some of his ministers left left the country and traveled to Belgium, in order to escape charges of rebellion and treason. New election were scheduled on the 21 of December.
And now we get to why I decided to write about this: the election results. Prime minister Rajoy hoped that the election would solve the situation in Catalonia but that won't happen. Even though their support dropped, the pro-independence parties kept their majority. This means that practically the only possible government is a coalition of pro-independence parties, however that may be easier said than done. The main problem here is the CUP, which as I mentioned earlier, allowed the pro-independence parties to get majority support for their government after the previous elections. This time however, they have announced that their terms for supporting the government will be very strict. If terms are not agreed upon, this will lead to a minority government, which is in a pretty difficult position, as they have to balance between the different factions. Situation like this might lead to another snap election being held soon after, if the government can't keep all sides happy. On the other hand, if the pro-independence parties are able to form a functional government, they have to be very careful with their actions, as the central government could simply invoke Section 155 again. On the other hand, if the central government invokes the section again, this would lead to opposition not only from the pro-independence circles but the opposition as well. The situation is far from over.
During these events I've been analyzing the situation and I think I've noticed the biggest mistakes made by both the Catalan independence movement and the Spanish central government. First of all, the independence referendum: while yes, it was illegal, I wouldn't consider it a mistake. Rather, I'd make the argument that the Spanish constitution is the problem here. Remember the 2014 opinion poll I mentioned earlier? Well, the Spanish government and Constitutional Court tried to block that as well, but the Catalan government went against this decision. Again, that was simply an opinion poll, it was not meant to be binding. Basically, the Spanish constitution prevents the regional government from polling it's own people. I'd say that's a problem. Even if holding a binding referendum was illegal, why can't they organize an advisory referendum, directed at polling their population? In my mind, the referendum could have been used as a way of showing the Spanish government how strong the support for independence is and used that as a way of getting more autonomy. As I mentioned previously, many Catalans are unhappy about them paying disproportional percentage of taxes to help the poorer regions of the country, instead of using the money in Catalonia. If the central government gave them more control over their money, that could help with combating the independence movement.
Another mistake the independence people did was declaring Catalonia independent. After the referendum, the Spanish central government demanded new elections to be held and it was expected that Puigdemont would announce new elections as a way of trying to solve the situation. The fact is that the way the central government reacted to the referendum, by sending in the police to stop voting, could have played in his favor and increased support for independence. Also, if he had called for the election, they would have been held on his terms potentially increasing the support even more. After that, he still would have had the declaration of independence to use. Basically by declaring independence Puigdemont used what was probably his strongest weapon. If he had waited until after the election, he could have had a lot stronger hand in the possible negotiations.
The biggest mistake the central government made was in their response to the referendum. If they had simply declared the referendum unconstitutional, they could have afterwards simply rejected whatever result came up. Essentially they could have said, "Nice referendum you had there. Unfortunately, was illegal and has no power.". Afterwards, if the Catalan government tried to secede, they could have sent their forces in to stop the secession. Instead, since they went in and used force to try and stop the referendum, they made the situation a lot worse than it had to be. If Rajoy had let the referendum happen and responded afterwards, the circumstances could have benefited him. He could have presented himself as somebody who restores order into a rogue region.
Ultimately, the best thing the Spanish government could have done is to simply let the Catalans have a referendum, just like the UK did with Scotland. That's why I think the Spanish constitution is the real problem here. By banning referendums on the regional level they are limiting the discussion.
What do I think about Catalan independence itself? Well, in my post on Finland's 100th independence day, I already mentioned that I personally don't understand nationalism and that applies here as well. Ultimately, if the people of Catalonia want independence from Spain, I see no reason to prevent it. I believe in democracy and if the Catalans decide democratically that they want to independent, there really in no reason to stop it. I've heard arguments that if Catalonia secedes, other regions of Spain would also want independence, which would lead in Spain disappearing from the face of the earth. The fact is that doesn't really matter. The earth will keep turning, even without Spain. Rather than being a great argument for not allowing Catalonia to secede, it tells something about Spain's history as a colonial power.
To those who are not familiar with the situation, here's some background to the situation. Catalonia is, at least officially, an autonomous part of Spain, To be clear, Spain is divided into multiple autonomous regions with varying decrees of self determination. This is because the country is culturally very diverse. The idea behind the division of power is to keep the country in tact while still making sure that the rights of the different linguistic and cultural minorities are respected. You can probably already guess that not everybody is too happy with the current situation. As a result, many of the autonomous communities have separatist movements, some more popular than others. Catalonia probably has the most successful one, as the pro-independence parties have held a majority in the regional parliament since 2015. There are two reasons for this: for one, the region has historically been separate from rest of Spain, holding a high level of autonomy in various times in history. On the other hand, the region is economically the strongest region of Spain, and as a result, some Catalans are unhappy that they pay a disproportionate amount of taxes, while not getting enough back. This combined with the 2008 Spanish financial crisis has led to a rapid increase in the support for independence, which leads us to the current events in the region.
In regional elections 2015, the pro-independence coalition Junts pel Sí became the largest group in the Catalan parliament and formed a minority government with conditional support from CUP-CC, a pro-independence party not part of the coalition, thus giving the majority of seats to the pro-independence parties. Before the election, Junts pel Sí had called for a referendum on the issue of independence, based on the results of an opinion poll held in 2014. The poll showed that over 90% supported independence, however, voter turnout was estimated to be between 37-42%, suggesting the poll was boycotted by people opposing independence. The referendum was scheduled to be held before the 17 of September 2017, but because of legislative and practical problems it was delayed until the 1 of October.
The Spanish central government responded to the planned referendum by declaring it as unconstitutional, taking the matter to the Constitutional Court which backed the governments position. Apart from this, because of an separate court order, the Spanish Civil Guard started Operation Anubis on the 20 of September, aimed at dismantling the framework for the referendum. The operation included raids towards the headquarters of the Catalan government, arrests of high ranking official organizing the referendum and raids towards printing companies in order to find ballot papers and boxes. This resulted in massive protests called by pro-independence groups, leaving Civil Guards agents trapped inside of buildings.
On the date of the referendum itself, the national police continued their efforts to prevent the vote. An estimated 16 000 police and military personnel were brought to Catalonia in an effort to close down polling stations. According to figures from the Catalan government, 14.5% were prevented from voting because of actions by the police. The operations sparked massive protests across the region and this the police using force towards the protesters. Pictures and videos of officers beating up peaceful protesters went viral, leading to international backlash against the actions of the police. Because of the actions of the police, combined with other irregularities with the referendum, including problems with the program used to monitor the results and people reportedly voting multiple times, international observers concluded the results as invalid.
According to the official results, voter turnout was 43% and the support for independence 92%. The Catalan government took this result as a clear indication of support for independence. The government drafted an declaration of independence and signed it on the 10 of October, however, the Catalan president Carles Puigdemont immediately requested the declaration to be suspended, in order to have dialogue with the Spanish government. The Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy held a short news conference the following day, demanding an answer on whether or not Puigdemont had declared Catalonia's independence and threatened to invoke Section 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which would allow the central government to take away Catalonia's autonomy, if the answer was affirmative. The Spanish government also demanded new elections to be held in Catalonia as a solution to the situation.
Since negotiations were not going anywhere, it was expected that Puigdemont would announce new elections in an effort to avoid Catalonia losing it's autonomy. Instead, on 27 of October, the Catalan parliament voted in favor of declaring independence. Before the vote, 53 members of the opposition refused to be present for the vote. After the declaration, the EU announced that they would not recognize the declarations, soon followed by other countries stating that they considered Catalonia a part of Spain. Immediately after the declaration was signed, the Spanish government invoked Section 155 of the constitution and dissolved the Catalan parliament, meaning Catalonia was taken under direct control of the central government. After this, Puigdemont and some of his ministers left left the country and traveled to Belgium, in order to escape charges of rebellion and treason. New election were scheduled on the 21 of December.
And now we get to why I decided to write about this: the election results. Prime minister Rajoy hoped that the election would solve the situation in Catalonia but that won't happen. Even though their support dropped, the pro-independence parties kept their majority. This means that practically the only possible government is a coalition of pro-independence parties, however that may be easier said than done. The main problem here is the CUP, which as I mentioned earlier, allowed the pro-independence parties to get majority support for their government after the previous elections. This time however, they have announced that their terms for supporting the government will be very strict. If terms are not agreed upon, this will lead to a minority government, which is in a pretty difficult position, as they have to balance between the different factions. Situation like this might lead to another snap election being held soon after, if the government can't keep all sides happy. On the other hand, if the pro-independence parties are able to form a functional government, they have to be very careful with their actions, as the central government could simply invoke Section 155 again. On the other hand, if the central government invokes the section again, this would lead to opposition not only from the pro-independence circles but the opposition as well. The situation is far from over.
During these events I've been analyzing the situation and I think I've noticed the biggest mistakes made by both the Catalan independence movement and the Spanish central government. First of all, the independence referendum: while yes, it was illegal, I wouldn't consider it a mistake. Rather, I'd make the argument that the Spanish constitution is the problem here. Remember the 2014 opinion poll I mentioned earlier? Well, the Spanish government and Constitutional Court tried to block that as well, but the Catalan government went against this decision. Again, that was simply an opinion poll, it was not meant to be binding. Basically, the Spanish constitution prevents the regional government from polling it's own people. I'd say that's a problem. Even if holding a binding referendum was illegal, why can't they organize an advisory referendum, directed at polling their population? In my mind, the referendum could have been used as a way of showing the Spanish government how strong the support for independence is and used that as a way of getting more autonomy. As I mentioned previously, many Catalans are unhappy about them paying disproportional percentage of taxes to help the poorer regions of the country, instead of using the money in Catalonia. If the central government gave them more control over their money, that could help with combating the independence movement.
Another mistake the independence people did was declaring Catalonia independent. After the referendum, the Spanish central government demanded new elections to be held and it was expected that Puigdemont would announce new elections as a way of trying to solve the situation. The fact is that the way the central government reacted to the referendum, by sending in the police to stop voting, could have played in his favor and increased support for independence. Also, if he had called for the election, they would have been held on his terms potentially increasing the support even more. After that, he still would have had the declaration of independence to use. Basically by declaring independence Puigdemont used what was probably his strongest weapon. If he had waited until after the election, he could have had a lot stronger hand in the possible negotiations.
The biggest mistake the central government made was in their response to the referendum. If they had simply declared the referendum unconstitutional, they could have afterwards simply rejected whatever result came up. Essentially they could have said, "Nice referendum you had there. Unfortunately, was illegal and has no power.". Afterwards, if the Catalan government tried to secede, they could have sent their forces in to stop the secession. Instead, since they went in and used force to try and stop the referendum, they made the situation a lot worse than it had to be. If Rajoy had let the referendum happen and responded afterwards, the circumstances could have benefited him. He could have presented himself as somebody who restores order into a rogue region.
Ultimately, the best thing the Spanish government could have done is to simply let the Catalans have a referendum, just like the UK did with Scotland. That's why I think the Spanish constitution is the real problem here. By banning referendums on the regional level they are limiting the discussion.
What do I think about Catalan independence itself? Well, in my post on Finland's 100th independence day, I already mentioned that I personally don't understand nationalism and that applies here as well. Ultimately, if the people of Catalonia want independence from Spain, I see no reason to prevent it. I believe in democracy and if the Catalans decide democratically that they want to independent, there really in no reason to stop it. I've heard arguments that if Catalonia secedes, other regions of Spain would also want independence, which would lead in Spain disappearing from the face of the earth. The fact is that doesn't really matter. The earth will keep turning, even without Spain. Rather than being a great argument for not allowing Catalonia to secede, it tells something about Spain's history as a colonial power.
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